Melody's Masters Samples

A Tale of Two Texas Campaigns 2018

Melody Young

American University

Abstract

The Texas Senate race of 2018 was historic, being the first such race in forty years in the generally conservative state, where a Democrat came close to beating the Republican incumbent. While Democrat candidate Beto O’Rourke was a charismatic newcomer and Congressman from El Paso, conservative Ted Cruz had a firm grip on the strategic responses it would take to motivate Republican voters to get out the vote. The two campaigns are noteworthy for their successes and for areas in which both could have done better, resulting in alternative outcomes. Despite a well-publicized visit to all the counties in Texas by the Democrat candidate, the Republican candidate used the visits he was able to make while still in power, to promote his image and motivate his base to vote for him again. While it could be seen as an error to not self-promote using yard signs, the incumbent managed to win the election through paid advertising and personal connection with supporters, despite less money raised by supporters, both in and out of state, than Beto. The Beto campaign is notable for the moderate and conciliatory tone it struck, and for Beto’s liberal progressive strides towards winning almost 50% of the vote in a deeply conservative state[CP1] . 

            Key words: strategy, appeal to fear, mere exposure, secularism, religious values, immigration, open borders

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A Tale of Two Texas Campaigns 2018

Introduction

The 2018 Texas Senate election, a race between the Republican incumbent, Ted Cruz, and the Democrat Representative from El Paso, Beto O’Rourke, played out in a context of national political gridlock and extreme partisanship. Ted Cruz won the election with 50.9% of the vote, and with a difference in votes of under 220,000. Beto O’Rourke’s 48.3% was an historically close call for the conservative monopoly on Texas representation in the United States Senate. It had been 40 years since another such close call had occurred in the traditionally red state (Essig, Murphy, & Formby, 2018).

Both candidates ran a grass-roots campaign, visited much, if not all, of Texas, and raised substantial amounts of money (Murphy, 2018). Two questions arise from the results of this election: why was it such a close call for the conservative incumbent, and why couldn’t the liberal progressive manage to win the election, given their substantial percentage of the vote? What possible explanations can we draw about the campaigns that were run and their effectiveness or lack thereof[CP2] ?

Part 1: Description of Communication Efforts

Context and Demographical Analysis

            The Cruz-Beto race for Senate was run in a context of deep partisan divides nationally, rumors of impeachment proceedings and corruption charges against the sitting president, and some real fear among conservatives of losing Texas to the liberals (Diaz, 2018). The 2018 Texas Senate election was considered pivotal to both parties, with the one candidate suggesting it was time to run and not wait to remove the president by national election [CP3] in 2020 (Lopez, 2017), and the other calling on his party to get out the vote for fear of being overtaken by a progressive agenda (see Appendix 4). 

As the closest race for Senator in the south-western state of Texas since 1978 (Essig, Murphy, & Formby, 2018), it can be suggested that conservative fears were well-founded, and context does suggest that the unpopular U.S. president impacted the liberal/progressive turn-out (Gillman, 2019). With Texas demographics changing, rising disillusionment with traditional party politics, and the conflict between the pro-life and pro-choice agendas, as well as concerns about gun rights versus gun control, the setting for the 2018 election was volatile at best. Following the tragic events in Charlottesville in August 2017, even Miss Texas spoke out against the president for not firmly condemning white supremacist violence as terrorism [CP4] (THR News, 2017), underlining a deepening divide in Texas politics.

Certainly, Texas politics are not as clear-cut conservative as the Republican party might hope: despite the rural stronghold conservatives have established, the Democrats in Texas tend to win in urban areas and in an apparent majority of the counties along the United States border with Mexico (see Appendix 6). Beyond targeting the usual demographics, the campaigns of Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz had to mobilize support from like-minded people, as well as convince people who were dissatisfied with current governance why they should switch allegiances.

Existing conservative values of Texans are arguably rooted in a high percentage of religious involvement, meaning that many Texans vote for a pro-life agenda and also value policies that favor individual freedoms such as home-schooling and religious observances. Despite a creeping reduction in religious affiliation, Texas remains a deeply religious state. Beyond the dominant Catholic and Southern Baptist affiliations, Muslim religious observance has risen to the fifth place, above many Christian forms of worship (Texas Almanac, 2017).

Interestingly, the ebbs and flows of religious affiliation have brought together what could be considered strange bed-fellows, with a Muslim woman being interviewed as having voted for known evangelical Ted Cruz (Zamora, 2018), likely due to similar religion-based conservative values. By contrast, evidence suggests that Beto O’Rourke just did not appeal to white evangelicals (Burge, 2018), due to his secular progressive image. In such a deeply religious state, it is perhaps amazing he did as well as he did. Ted Cruz had a strong base of support amongst fellow Christians, and the importance of religious affiliation cannot be underestimated in Texas. 

When considering the significant Latinx community in Texas, while Cruz proved a level of proficiency in Spanish at the 2016 presidential debates (Hains, 2016), Beto is able to speak directly to fellow Texans who are Spanish language speakers, and he was able to wield his fluency as a political advantage (Svitek, 2018). This, along with his appeals for compassion and his opposition to Cruz’ perceived authoritarian emphasis on law enforcement (Fritz, 2016) should have been framed as a connection to non-white communities, including the African American community. That being said, the very disconnect between his youthful outlaw image (Reuters, 2019), and the experiences of African Americans who commit similar offences, may not have entirely endeared O’Rourke to that community. 

Framing the Debate

The contrast between O’Rourke and Cruz is significant even in how they both framed[CP5]  the same issues. Beto presented himself as someone who was open to debate and tolerant, even going on a local radio show to advocate for law-abiding citizens keeping their AR-15s and using them lawfully (see Appendix 1, 1). Ted presented himself as compassionate but strong, through his use of the “Tough as Texas” advertisement (see Appendix 2, 2). Both candidates were appealing to Texans who value their right to bear arms, their ideal of a Texas that is family-based, and they both tried to present themselves as visionary leaders who could be depended upon in a crisis. 

The difference came in how they commented on national and local events, such as the ongoing investigation of the president. Cruz framed the rise in progressive values in Texas as liberal hate and rage against a successful president, referencing Biblical language in framing Trump’s liberal enemies as “full of rage” (see Appendix 4: Lester Holt Interview). O’Rourke suggested unapologetically that he would be open to impeaching the president for abuse of power (Appendix 1, 1: “I would vote to impeach”), and he framed this through the lens of Texas non-conformity.

Both candidates were careful to attack the other side using relatively civil methods, respecting traditional values. This was borne out in how the race was conceded and the response of Cruz to his opponent in the aftermath (Fernandez, 2018). Certainly, O’Rourke’s accidental “F-bomb” [CP6] (Hoffman, 2018) was not a huge disappointment to his supporters, but rather understood as strength of emotion in keeping with a rather cowboy image.

Telling the Story

While Cruz’ website was clear and concise, listing issues important to conservative Texans in simple form, Beto’s website focused on his own family and life story. The overall story that Cruz tried to tell through his paid media (Appendix 2) was one of Texas plowing forward through a difficult time of creeping liberalism. The bad guy was liberalism and the solution was Ted Cruz continuing to lead confidently. By contrast, O’Rourke told a story of togetherness, family, and advocated for the benefits of immigration and its resultant cultural exchange (Appendix 3). By selling his good experiences in El Paso as the positives the nation should expect, he took a pro-immigration stance that conservative Texans, as Zamora (2018) indicates, feared would lead to “open borders.” The facts Beto presented on his stance could not alleviate this concern, since the Cruz campaign made a strong appeal to fears about illegal immigration (Blanchard, 2018).

Unexpected Allies

            Despite the issue of illegal immigration, the majority of districts along the border did not vote heavily for Ted Cruz (Appendix 6). This presents an interesting conundrum, because these are the communities most affected by immigration. Perhaps due to the importance of migrant work for local communities, or because of family ties over the border, many border communities saw the issue differently from their northern neighbors. That said, a large region in West Texas right next to Beto’s El Paso went strongly for Ted Cruz.

            Also noteworthy is the earned media obtained by Ted Cruz near to the election, with his Lester Holt interview (Appendix 4,2). Traditionally the media is viewed as liberal-leaning, so the positive framing of Cruz as a politician capable of analyzing the state of affairs in Texas gave Cruz an important platform to promote himself as a leader. Beto O’Rourke had also earned a phenomenal amount of media, including from overseas (see Hampton, 2018; BBC, 2018), due to fears about Trump and awareness of the significance of a progressive response in a red state. Although he was able to use this to his advantage for exposure in raising his profile from Representative to Senator and even potential presidential candidate, some have argued that his charisma was also his downfall [CP7] (Plott, 2018).

Response Strategy

            Announcing his candidacy, Beto O’Rourke laid out a progressive plan that included a call for term limits (Appendix 3). Wisely refusing to react on that issue, Cruz immediately responded on Twitter (Appendix 4, 1), framing O’Rourke as a liberal democrat threat to Texan values, which were implied to be conservative by definition. Throughout the campaign, the incumbent would release quick and well produced pieces of paid media in response to O’Rourke’s articulation of a progressive agenda (Appendix 2). While O’Rourke was good at getting the yard signs out, Cruz was good at getting the message to those people who would hear his calls to fear and vote accordingly. The “stand for the flag” (Appendix 2, 1) issue is a good example of how Cruz would counter-attack O’Rourke’s messaging, appealing to conservative Texan values. [CP8] 

Part 2: Analysis and Critique

These comparisons naturally lead us towards assessing the effectiveness of the two 2018 political campaigns. There were many elements in both campaigns that were effective, and many strategies that were ineffective, and all of these components to the campaigns were likely impacted by a variety of foreseeable and unforeseeable factors. It is important to understand the campaigns in the light of research and expertise in the area of political communication. Cruz did not win and O’Rourke did not lose purely because Texas is a conservative state. There were significant communication strategies in play that affected the outcome of the race.   

Effective Elements of the Cruz Campaign

            As we can see in Appendix 2, the Cruz campaign created several attack and more general political advertisements that could be shared online from YouTube, as well as played as paid media on local and state television. These advertisements were very effective at drawing on emotion and values that appeal to Texan culture, using imagery that evoked thoughts of patriotism, support for troops and law enforcers, and Texan toughness. While Cruz’ campaign decided not to promote themselves predominantly through yard signs (Livingston & Svitek, 2018), given election results, they were effective at targeting the people they intended to reach. 

The Cruz campaign based their strategic communication activities on research, and gambled on the fact that Ted Cruz was a known figure and did not need to compete with Beto for name recognition. Beyond the yard signs, Cruz also did not visit every single county in Texas as O’Rourke did (Tilove, 2018), but those he did visit were strategically chosen to boost his image and give him an opportunity for positive earned media and additional footage on his paid media advertising the “Cruz with Cruz” (see Appendix 2, 3).

Effective Elements of the O’Rourke Campaign

            The O’Rourke campaign was strategic in advertising their candidate using a very simple black and white sign, avoiding the blue associated with the Democrats, that was sold to supporters for a donation. The simplicity of the design was memorable, as per Heath and Heath’s [CP9] recommendations (2007) and stood out, giving potential supporters a reason to feel they were not the only ones voting other than conservative in the predominantly conservative state (Livingston & Svitek, 2018). Yard signs made an impact through what Perloff on page 325 notes as “mere exposure” (2014), causing some consternation for Cruz supporters, according to Livingston and Svitek (2018). 

            Beto also managed to position himself as a moderate, reaching out to people who were highly involved in the election because of opposition to the sitting president, rather than the incumbent himself. He appealed to conservatives who were unhappy with the current status quo by downplaying any aversion to gun rights (see Appendix 1, 1) and emphasizing common ground and civil discourse, avoiding personal attacks on his opponent (Mekelburg, 2018).

Weak Elements of the Cruz Campaign

The Cruz campaign can be criticized for not understanding the importance of mere exposure that the Beto campaign understood. By visiting every country in Texas and using his yard signs, Beto was successful in speaking to the heart of Texans in a way that threatened Ted Cruz’ re-election bid. Ted Cruz, by contrast, lacked the level of charisma that Beto had (Miller, 2018). By strategically focusing on supporters rather than outreach, the Cruz campaign may have lost votes from people who would usually have voted Republican, but felt abandoned until Beto came along to visit their county. This is arguably the result of Beto’s campaigning in Tarrant county (Livingston, 2018). While their Cruz decision [CP10] to minimally give yard signs out was based in financial concerns and research, they missed out on an opportunity to collect donations from willing supporters, and their lack of effort in this area was a risky business (Livingston & Svitek, 2018). 

The Cruz campaign also needed to walk a fine line between attack advertising and coming across as the model of good governance while in office. By framing Beto’s bid for Senate as a threat (Appendix 1,1), the Cruz campaign appealed to the fears of their core base of supporters, at risk of sounding shaken and insecure. Their advertising seemed on the defensive, and although they successfully framed Beto as the villain to conservatives, the focus was more negative than positive, which did not compete so well against Beto’s positive focus[CP11] .

Weak Elements of the Beto Campaign

The Beto campaign can be criticized for not refining their message to fit Texan values. It has been said by Cruz himself that Beto didn’t really understand Texas, and to some extent that is what appeared to be true. Despite visiting every county, Beto did not speak as a politician in his answers on contentious issues such as kneeling for the flag at football games (Appendix 1, 3). Instead of doing what is recommended at all times (Issenberg, 2012), and tailoring his message according to the strategic data gathered on target audiences, he spoke from the heart and alienated people who were not able to reconcile him with what they viewed as Texan values. 

For example, Beto focused so positively on immigration as a good thing, that his opponent’s accusations of support for open borders stuck (Heath & Heath, 2007), even though that was not his precise position. Instead of understanding the fears and concerns of Texans who were against immigration, let alone illegal immigration, Beto promoted his message without alleviating concerns and memorably explaining a moderate way forward. The success of the framing by his opponent is due to their clever use of ideas discussed in the article “Don’t think Of An Elephant”( Lakoff, 2014); since O’Rourke had had a good experience of immigration, he came across to those fearful of illegal or an influx of immigrants as pro-open borders, no matter what he might say. His opponents managed to strategically message that “immigration” to Beto meant illegal immigration and an influx of nameless criminals. Beto did not effectively frame his stance in a way that could be understood by people already pre-conditioned by an appeal to fear. Although Beto’s strategists likely use message boxes, as illustrated in Appendix 5 (see Hawkes, 2010; Appendix 5), Beto’s authentic approach did not lend itself towards self-awareness of how those different from him politically saw his positions. 

Finally, Beto came across as unprepared and rather pretentious when he announced his run for the Senate by referencing feelings in his heart rather than cold hard polling numbers (Lopez, 2017). Compared to Ted Cruz’ strategic focus to detail, this proved foolhardy in the long run. It made the case (Appendix 3, 2), that O’Rourke was out of touch with Texans. Beto’s messaging could hardly appeal well to moderate conservative voters, such as those who considered the pro-life issue to be paramount (Burge, 2018). While Beto visited every county, Cruz didn’t have to do so. Beto’s efforts inadvertently came off as a bit desperate in comparison to Cruz’ strategic visits to places that welcomed him and gave a good photo opportunity (Appendix 2, 3). Beto had a lot of heart, but somewhat lacked the disciplined messaging strategy to achieve his goals.

Conclusions From the Two Campaigns

The Beto and Cruz campaigns are fascinating to compare because of their clearly different strategies and outlooks. There are definitely things to be learned by both parties from both campaigns. It was not a clear-cut “right way” to run a campaign versus the “wrong way” to run a campaign, but rather two different strategies with one campaign having a deeply rooted cultural advantage. Despite the liberal progressive’s substantial percentage of the vote, it is clear that the newcomer did not read his audience as well as the incumbent did. 

The numbers indicate that an influx of donations from out of state simply couldn’t push progressives to a position of leadership in Texas, and the strategy of the incumbent conservative was to constantly use the “outside influences” narrative to his advantage. Texans are culturally religious and conservative, compared to many American states, and Beto could not communicate in a way that the majority of Texans could entirely understand, despite his moderation or personal religious beliefs.

The right wisely got out the vote by appealing to the emotions of their base, attacking Beto, essentially for being himself, rather than being a politician. The left came out of the equation looking naïve, lacking in discipline and strong values, “dangerously” secular and most definitely in need of more toughness. The Beto campaign, despite their yard signs, simply wasn’t able to simplify their ideas clearly enough or promote a message that united Texans around shared values. So, despite the charisma of their candidate, the authentic attempts at dialogue about culturally conflicted issues like guns or patriotism, came off as convoluted and did not resonate with enough Texan voters. The winner in this was Ted Cruz, who managed to frame conservative values as quintessentially Texan.

The lesson of the two campaigns seems to be that strategy and a calculated focus may count more than authenticity and heart-felt appeals to the common good. Further, there are actions that both sides took that were successful and effective, while other strategies were not important or even became detrimental to their respective causes. One of the biggest take-aways of this (non-exhaustive) study is that simplicity is essential to catching the attention of potential voters. It can be added that in order to win in Texas, a multi-pronged approach would be essential, a calm toughness is important, and though sentimentality may give people hope, it is perhaps not ultimately the winning strategy that a well-placed appeal to fear can be[CP12] .

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Part 3: Appendices

Appendix 1: Earned Media Examples for Beto O’Rourke

1. Beto O’Rourke on Radio speaking about issues important to Texans:

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1. The Washington Post:

 In this tiny Texas town, Democratic Senate hopeful Beto O’Rourke draws a crowd

1. The Guardian: Beto O’Rourke responds to question on NFL protests

Appendix 2: Ted Cruz: Paid Media

1. Ted Cruz: Stand for the Flag

1. Ted Cruz: Tough As Texas Campaign Advertisement

1. See also: #CruzToVictory GOTV Bus Tour

Appendix 3: Beto O’Rourke’s Campaign Announcement (Excerpts)

Source: https://kfoxtv.com/news/local/new-website-may-be-hint-of-beto-orourkes-announcement

Appendix 4: Incumbent Ted’s Cruz’s Response to Beto O’Rourke’s Campaign

1. Twitter response to Beto Campaign Announcement

Source: https://kfoxtv.com/news/local/new-website-may-be-hint-of-beto-orourkes-announcement

1. Ted Cruz Earned Media: Lester Holt Interview with Ted Cruz

Appendix 5: Messaging Examples

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Ted Cruz Messaging Examples[CP13] 

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Us on us

#ChooseCruz – “A Clear Choice for Texas”

• Constitutional conservatism 

• Pro Second Amendment

• Jobs

• Stand With Israel

• Texas Values (conservatism)

• Grassroots focused

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Them on them

#VoteBeto 

• Bringing people together/unity

• Accessible- we visit every county

• Grassroots focus

• Walking the talk (Lovegrove, 2019)

• Pro-immigration (El Paso-Juarez as a model for peaceful interaction)

• Young/Fresh/Underdog

• Anti-Trump/Progressive values

Us on them

• Pro open borders

• Weak on crime/illegal immigration

• Taxation

• Invasion of privacy

• Restriction of freedoms (gun rights)

• Pro abortion

• Secular

• Liberal

Them on us

• Too traditional

• Inaccessible

• Anti-LGBTQIA

• Gun nuts

• Discriminatory towards women

• Hypocrites

• Big corporate

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Beto O’Rourke Messaging Examples

Us on us

#VoteBeto 

• Bringing people together/unity/bipartisanship

• Accessible- we visit every county

• Grassroots focus

• Walking the talk (Lovegrove, 2019)

• Pro-immigration (El Paso-Juarez as a model for peaceful interaction)

• Punk Rocker (!)/ Youthful Mistakes frame

• Anti-Trump/Progressive values

Them on them

​

#ChooseCruz – “A Clear Choice for Texas”

• Constitutional conservatism 

• Pro Second Amendment (freedoms)

• Jobs (Hardworking)

• Stand With Israel (Religious appeal)

• Texas Values (are conservatism)

• Grassroots focused

• Pro-Life

Us on them

• Rigid

• Pro-Trump

• Pro-gun without sensible restrictions

• Discriminatory towards women

• Anti-immigrant

• Cruel

• All about the money

Them on us

• Not serious enough

• Gun-grabbing

• Baby-killers (!)

• Weak on illegal immigration

• Pro-Choice

• Globalist

• Pro Open Borders

Appendix 6: Urban-Rural Divide in Texas Politics

 [CP1]Good abstract. Add a brief thesis statement that gives your readers a clear direction for your case study and the primary academic concepts you’ll use

 [CP2]Excellent introduction and overview of the election. Include a thesis statement here too

 [CP3]Clarify this point a bit. Beto ran on an anti-Trump, pro-impeachment agenda?

 [CP4]Interesting research! Explain further why Miss Texas’s voice matters in the state. Are there any other influential messengers/validators worth mentioning?

 [CP5]Briefly explain the concept of framing to your readers, according to the course material

 [CP6]Add some context here for your readers

 [CP7]Good observation. Likability heuristic?

 [CP8]Compelling overview of each candidates’ response strategies

 [CP9]Smart reference to the SUCCESs Model. Explain it in some more detail for your readers

 [CP10]?

 [CP11]Good!

 [CP12]Very nice conclusion

 [CP13]Bravo!!